Chiefs at Patriots, Week 15 preview

Chiefs NEED a 'get right' game. Check out our notes and picks for this week.

Wes Roesch

Key game details

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.
Date: Sunday, Dec. 17
Time: Noon CT/1 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: FOX
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -8 (-110), ML -410
Weather: Approx. 48°, cloudy, 9 mph winds, chance of rain 15%

Chiefs

Did not practice: S Mike Edwards (illness), RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), LT Donovan Smith (neck)

Limited participants: LB Nick Bolton (wrist)

Full participants: LB Leo Chenal (illness), RB Jerick McKinnon (groin), S Justin Reid (knee), WR Justyn Ross (return from suspension), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee), WR Kadarius Toney (hip), LB Drue Tranquill (concussion)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

Good news for the Chiefs: Tranquill should be back, and Ross will return from suspension. Bad news: Pacheco may miss another game, meaning another matchup without one of Kansas City’s best playmakers.

Patriots

Did not practice: OT Trent Brown (ankle/hand/illness), DB Brenden Schooler (illness), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)

Limited participants: DL Christian Barmore (shoulder), WR Kayshon Boutte (shoulder), WR Demario Douglas (concussion), WR DeVante Parker (knee), WR/ST Matthew Slater (rest), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle), WR Tyquan Thornton (hamstring)

Full participants: OL Tyrone Wheatley (IR - knee)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

The biggest ones to monitor are Brown and Stevenson. Brown practiced earlier in the week but sat Thursday due to an illness, which implies that he’ll be able to play through that on Sunday. If Stevenson can’t play, expect running back Ezekiel Elliott to earn the bulk of carries.

Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 15

Will Justyn Ross do… anything?

The Chiefs’ enigmatic receiver is back from suspension, and there’s no telling whether he’ll make an impact or even play at all. Given the Chiefs’ issues at receiver, it seems like a good play for the team to give Ross a decent chunk of playing time. Seriously, it couldn’t hurt. The WR corps can’t get any worse.

Drue Tranquill returns, defense gets healthier

Bolton came back last week and Tranquill will be back this week, meaning the Chiefs’ defense is getting healthy at the right time. Of course, it’s a bummer to not have safety Bryan Cook out there, but rookie Chamarri Conner did a nice job filling in last week by earning his first interception.

Will Chiefs’ mistakes worsen?

Penalties, drops, lining up an inch or two offside — we’ve seen it all from the Chiefs this season. The mistakes have no doubt been prevalent, but one can’t help but think that Kansas City has been under a microscope this year when it comes to penalties. That just means the team needs to be extra careful about getting the small things right moving forward. Can they overcome, or is the team what it is at this point in the season?

Chiefs-Patriots best bets

My cold streak continues after going 1-for-3 with my picks last week. My only hit was the Josh Allen touchdown. Let’s hope (for the sake of my bank account) for a better outing this week.

Patriots QB Bailey Zappe under 190.5 passing yards (-115)

In four career starts, Zappe has gone over this mark twice. So it’s a 50-50 shot he goes over, but this Chiefs defense is probably the best he’s ever faced and allows just 185 passing yards per game. Combine that with an angry Chiefs team that’s getting healthy, and I think Zappe has a hard time doing much of anything. Instead, expect the Pats to lean more on the running game, which is a weaker phase for the K.C. defense.

Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon anytime TD (+160)

McKinnon returned last week after missing a handful of games. And just like that, as soon as the Chiefs leaned on him a bit with Pacheco out, McKinnon made it into the end zone. McKinnon was a touchdown machine last year with 10 total, so needless to say Mahomes loves to look his way in the red zone. If Pacheco misses this game, consider McKinnon a good bet to score.

Dark horse bet: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce first TD scorer (+425)

First touchdown scorer bets are volatile and nearly impossible to predict. So my rationale for this one may be a bit of a reach, but I love a 4.25x payout enough to take the chance. First, the Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in eight of 13 games this season. The Pats? Just four.

So if the Chiefs have the better odds of scoring first, who’s the guy who has the best chance of scoring? Duh, it’s Kelce. Also, Kelce hasn’t been a first TD scorer yet this season, so it seems more likely that he’ll snag his first one than someone else on the team getting their second or third.

Chiefs-Patriots matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series 20-16-3 over the Patriots dating back to 1960. Coach Andy Reid is 4-3 against New England as Chiefs head coach, while Mahomes is 2-2. The Chiefs are on a two-game winning streak against the Pats.

The last time the Chiefs and Patriots played…

The Chiefs beat the Pats 26-10 on October 5, 2020, so it’s been a while since these two have faced off. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who could get the start this Sunday with Pacheco out, had 91 yards from scrimmage in that game.



The best Chiefs-Patriots game ever was…

Unfortunately, the best game between these two was a loss for the Chiefs. The Pats beat the Chiefs in the 2018-19 AFC Championship Game by a 37-31 score in overtime. The Chiefs never saw the ball in overtime, though the game wouldn’t have even made it there if Dee Ford hadn’t lined up offsides…