Chiefs at Raiders, Week 12 preview
It's Raider Week. Check our notes and picks for this AFC West matchup.
Wes Roesch
This year, the holidays are all about the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6) for the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3). These two old-school rivals face off this Sunday during Thanksgiving weekend, and again on Christmas Day.
If these holidays are about being thankful and about giving, then Chiefs fans can be thankful that their team gets to give the Raiders a whoopin’ twice a year.
Key game details
Location: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev.
Date: Sunday, Nov. 26
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT / 1:25 p.m. PT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Kevin Harlan, Trent Green
Referee: Land Clark
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -8.5 (-110), ML -395
Weather: (Dome) Approx. 56°, clear skies, 9 mph winds, chance of rain 0%
Injury reports from Thursday
Chiefs
Did not practice: WR Mecole Hardman (thumb)
Limited participants: RB Jerick McKinnon (groin)
Full participants: LT Donovan Smith (neck), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee), WR Kadarius Toney (ankle), CB Joshua Williams (shoulder)
Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon
Hardman injured his thumb during last week’s loss against the Philadelphia Eagles. It looks like there’s a chance he misses Sunday’s game. Everyone else seems to be good to go.
Raiders
Did not practice: DE Maxx Crosby (knee)
Limited participants: S Marcus Epps (neck), CB Jack Jones (knee/hip), OT Kolton Miller (shoulder), S Tre'von Moehrig (back), LB Robert Spillane (ankle)
Full participants: C Andre James (knee), S Roderic Teamer (hamstring)
Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon
Obviously Crosby is the big one to monitor here, but it seems doubtful that he’ll miss this game. After all, he and quarterback Patrick Mahomes
have a rivalry to uphold.
Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 12
Will the drops continue?
One can point to a fumble by tight end Travis Kelce or an interception by quarterback Patrick Mahomes as part of the reason why the Chiefs lost to the Eagles last week, and they’d be right. However, it’s difficult not to hyper-focus on the drops made by Chiefs receivers this season. If receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling would have hauled in that deep pass for a touchdown last week, Chiefs fans would probably forgive the rest of the team for any mistakes made. The fact is, the WR squad needs to be better for this team to be a contender.
Mahomes-Crosby trash talk
Fans are looking forward to the aforementioned Mahomes-Crosby rivalry ever since the Netflix show “Quarterback” featured trash talk between the two. Mahomes talked about this in a presser this week: “I don’t like playing against him because I know what type of player he is and the mindset he comes in with … I just try to stay fired up and go out there and win. And he’s the same way.”
Travis Kelce’s “struggles”
I mean, being on pace for over 1,000 yards receiving isn’t necessarily “struggling,” but it’s low for Kelce’s standards. His lower numbers this year seem to be a combination of battling multiple injuries and going through several surgeries, plus the fact that teams are double covering him (and they can get away with it because, well, the Chiefs’ receiving squad is not good at all). Kelce hasn’t gone over 60 yards since Week 7 — is this the week he gets back on track?
Chiefs’ pass defense domination
While the offense has faltered, the Chiefs’ defense has been a huge positive this season — especially the pass defense. In Week 11, cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie allowed a combined three receptions for 18 yards, and held Eagles receiver A.J. Brown to just one catch for eight yards. In a league where passing is so important, it can’t be overstated how much of an advantage it is to have two top-tier corners.
Chiefs-Raiders best bets
Last week, I hit on the Kelce anytime touchdown, but failed on the Brown anytime TD and the over on Rashee Rice 42.5 yards receiving. Rice had 42 yards receiving, which is painful for those who took the the over.
Chiefs LB Drue Tranquill over 7.5 tackles + assists (-110)
When Tranquill starts in place of injured linebacker Nick Bolton, he produces. In the six games Tranquill has started this season, he averages 8.5 combined tackles/assists per game. He’s also gotten over the 7.5 mark in five of those six games. Confidently take the over here.
Chiefs spread -5.5 first half (-110)
The Chiefs have overwhelmingly been a first half team this season. In 10 games, they’ve led at the half eight times, while leading by six or more points in seven of those games. If K.C. is going to put points on the Raiders, it’ll probably be in the first two quarters, and leading by six seems reasonable given the Raiders’ offensive woes this season.
Raiders DE Maxx Crosby over 0.25 sacks (-105)
Continuing the conversation about the Mahomes-Crosby rivalry, Crosby will probably be pumped and ready for this game. He had three sacks on the Chiefs last year and has 10.5 sacks through 11 games this season. He’s also notched at least half a sack in eight games this year. It doesn’t seem far-fetched for him to notch half a sack again this week.
Chiefs-Raiders matchup history
The Chiefs lead the all-time series over the Raiders 72-54-2 dating back to 1960. K.C. is 17-3 vs. the Raiders under coach Andy Reid, 9-1 under quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and currently owns a five-game winning streak over them.
The last time the Chiefs and Raiders played…
The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-13 on Jan. 7, 2023. With former Raiders QB Derek Carr almost out the door, the Raiders had started Jarrett Stidham at QB. It was an extremely flat game for L.V., which didn’t seem to have much reason to try that late into the season. The Chiefs’ defense earned six sacks that day, helping the team notch an easy win.
The best Chiefs-Raiders game ever was…
Like I’ve noted with the Broncos and Chargers matchups, there have been so many (125 to be exact) games between these two that it’d be tough to find the best one. So let’s go back and remember last year’s game on Oct. 10, 2022…
The Chiefs went down 17-0 in the second quarter. It was looking like a rough game for K.C. until Kelce went god mode and took over the game. Kelce caught four touchdowns, which is hilarious considering he ended up with only 25 yards. After the Chiefs took a 30-23 lead in the fourth, the Raiders scored a TD and attempted a two-point conversion to take the lead. Unfortunately for them, running back Josh Jacobs was stuffed at the line.
Chiefs-Raiders prediction, picks
There’s no way I could justify picking the Raiders with rookie QB Aidan O’Connell getting the start, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Vegas keeps this close due to K.C.’s offensive struggles.
Will the Chiefs beat the Raiders?
Yes, the Chiefs will win. The Chiefs’ defense kept Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, of all people, from putting up big numbers, so I expect it to have a nice day against O’Connell. The Chiefs’ offense, meanwhile, should (hopefully) take advantage of a weak Raiders run defense.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
Given the amount of mistakes the Chiefs have made offensively as of late, I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Connell is given a short field once or twice in this game, leading to some points. This game has a chance to be a blowout if K.C. plays mistake-free ball, but in Week 12 I’m not sure I can bank on that happening. Alas, I wouldn’t bet the Chiefs to cover the overall game spread — just the first half spread.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 16
