Chiefs vs. 49ers, Super Bowl LVIII preview

Chiefs have a shot at a dynasty. Our notes and picks for the Big Game!

Wes Roesch

Key game details

Location: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev.
Date: Sunday, Feb. 11
Time: 5:30 p.m. CT / 3:30 p.m. PT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+, Nickelodeon
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs +2 (-115), ML +100
Weather: (Dome) Approx. 53°, clear skies, up to 8 mph winds, chance of rain 0%
Halftime show: Usher

Shout out to the awesome Matt McMullen for these injury reports.

Chiefs

It’s looking more and more like left guard Joe Thuney won’t play. Nick Allegretti played well in Thuney’s place during the Chiefs’ AFC Championship Game win over the Baltimore Ravens, so it’s encouraging that a competent backup is ready to go.

Aside from running back Jerick McKinnon, who only has a slight chance to play, the other injuries listed don’t seem to be holding anyone back from participating. Barring any setbacks, anyway.

49ers

The biggest one here is clearly tight end George Kittle, but it’s unlikely he misses this one, even if he has to push through the pain.

Notable storylines for Super Bowl LVIII

A chance at immortality for the Chiefs

Legacies are on the line in Kansas City. Not just for the Chiefs, who are battling for their third ring in five years and fourth ring overall, the latter of which would put them in an elite class of just six other teams that have won four or more Super Bowls in their franchise history.

Nope, others who are fighting for elite supremacy include quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce. Adding a third ring for Mahomes would put him above greats like Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and John Elway. And another Super Bowl win would solidify Kelce as the greatest tight end of all time, if he hasn’t proven that already.

Who else? There’s defensive lineman Chris Jones, who would have a chance to add to his already-stacked hall of fame resume. And then there’s coach Andy Reid, who, like Mahomes, can move up next to elite peers such as Bill Walsh and Joe Gibbs. Also, don’t forget defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who can become the first coordinator (offensive or defensive) to win four Super Bowls (remember, he won one with the New York Giants).

All of this seems like extra sauce on an already stacked plate of meatballs. Those named above don’t necessarily need this next ring. But it sure as hell wouldn’t hurt.

…but the Niners want revenge

Now, if we’re talking about those who need this win, it’s the San Francisco 49ers. Well, not necessarily the franchise itself, which has five Super Bowl wins (tied for third place) and its own dynasty from 1981-1994 to fall back on. But those involved certainly crave this championship to establish their own legacies.

Coach Kyle Shanahan leads the way. He stepped out of the shadow of his father, Mike, who won two Super Bowls of his own with the Denver Broncos, to make his mark by becoming one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. The Niners have made the NFC Championship or Super Bowl in four of the last five years, showing that even they were dangerously close to a dynasty of their own if a few things could have gone their way.

Then there are top players like running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle, defensive end Nick Bosa and left tackle Trent Williams, all of who need to add to their hall of fame resumes with a nice, shiny ring. And Brock Purdy, who can show everyone that he is more than just a “system quarterback.”



Above all, though, this is a revenge game for the 49ers. They could have established their legacies four years ago (except for McCaffrey, who was on the Carolina Panthers at the time, and Purdy, who was in college). But the Chiefs got in their way, beating the Niners in Super Bowl LIV. And you can bet the 49ers haven’t forgotten about it.

Chiefs-49ers best bets

2-for-4 last week, again hitting on two of the Isiah Pacheco props. You can bet I’ll be hitting those yet again.

Chiefs moneyline (+100)

I’ve said this before: It’s not often that you get Mahomes with plus odds, especially in the postseason. Take it when you can. I’m feeling the Chiefs in this game, probably more so than any of their previous Super Bowls. Maybe that confidence is scary, but so is betting.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 70+ rushing yards (-105)

I mean, duh. Pacheco has hit his rushing overs in each of his last four games. His over for this game is technically at 67.5 (-135), but I don’t think it’s much of a risk to hit the 70+ line for the extra juice on your bet. Pacheco has gone over 70 in four of his last six games, and was two yards shy of 70 last week against a great Ravens defense. The Niners have a pretty good run defense, but were gashed on the ground by the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers in the playoffs.

You could certainly hit the Pacheco anytime touchdown as well — it’d be a good bet considering he has scored in each of his last seven games — but the -120 line is a bit steep. Since most of those were rushing touchdowns, you could opt for Pacheco over 0.5 rushing TDs at +110 for more juice. Or you could hit the Pacheco anytime TD + Chiefs win parlay, which gives +225 odds.

49ers DE Nick Bosa over 0.25 sacks (-105)

I wanted to hit a Niners offensive bet, but the Chiefs’ defense has played so well that I can’t decide who to take. So instead, I’ll go defense. Bosa had two sacks against the Lions last week and averages one sack per game against Kansas City. The Chiefs typically don’t allow a ton of sacks but gave up two last week and have a backup (albeit a good one) playing on the offensive line. Plus, right tackle Jawaan Taylor hasn’t exactly been great in the playoffs, so I could see that being a bad matchup for K.C.



Dark horse bet: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP (+1200)

Going back to legacies, wouldn’t it be awesome if Kelce capped off this tough, grind-it-out season with a Super Bowl MVP? His 116 yards and a TD would have been enough to get him the award in the AFC Championship Game if such an award existed for that one. +1200 odds are very juicy considering Kelce could easily have another huge performance in the Super Bowl. If he were to win it, he would be the first tight end ever to earn the award.

Chiefs-49ers matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series 8-7 against the Niners dating back to 1971. Kansas City has a three-game winning streak against San Francisco, with all three wins under Reid and Mahomes. The Chiefs are also 1-0 against the 49ers in the postseason.

The last time the Chiefs and 49ers played…

The Chiefs beat the Niners 44-23 on October 23, 2022. San Francisco actually started off hot with a 10-0 lead, but the Chiefs came back quickly. This one didn’t really become a “blowout” until the fourth quarter when K.C. scored two touchdowns and netted a safety against then-Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo. That game was actually McCaffrey’s first with San Fran.



The best Chiefs-49ers game ever was…

You know the one. Super Bowl 54. Chiefs were down 20-10 with a little over seven minutes to go. Then, three words: Jet Chip Wasp. Mahomes hit receiver Tyreek Hill deep for 44 yards. Then a Kelce touchdown, then a running back Damien Williams touchdown, and then yet another Williams TD to seal it. The Chiefs earned their first Super Bowl title in 50 years.