Chiefs vs. Bills, Week 14 preview

This is a big one. Check out our notes and picks for this week.

Wes Roesch

Key game details

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Sunday, Dec. 10
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -1.5 (-110), ML -122
Weather: Approx. 41°, partly cloudy, 12 mph winds, chance of rain 0%

Chiefs

Did not practice: S Bryan Cook (ankle), RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), OT Donovan Smith (neck), LB Drue Tranquill (concussion)

Limited participants: None

Full participants: LB Nick Bolton (IR - foot), LB Darius Harris (wrist), QB Patrick Mahomes (pectoral), RB Jerick McKinnon (groin), WR Skyy Moore (knee), WR Rashee Rice (foot), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee), WR Kadarius Toney (hip)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

The Chiefs have an absolutely brutal injury report this week. Cook won’t play (and may miss the rest of the regular season), and chances of Pacheco and Tranquill playing aren’t looking good. Smith being out isn’t great either, though it’s at least a positive sign that rookie tackle Wanya Morris played well in his place in Week 13.

Bills

Did not practice: None

Limited participants: None

Full participants: QB Josh Allen (shoulder), CB Kaiir Elam (ankle), DE Leonard Floyd (wrist), CB Dane Jackson (concussion), TE Dalton Kincaid (thumb), TE Dawson Knox (wrist), LB Von Miller (rest), S Taylor Rapp (neck)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

Buffalo has more of a positive injury report with their whole team practicing in full. That’s not a common thing to see this late in the season, so good for them.

Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 14

Can the Chiefs overcome injuries?

If Pacheco and McKinnon don’t play, that leaves Clyde Edwards-Helaire and practice squad running backs to run the show. CEH has barely played this season and averages 3.5 yards per attempt. He hasn’t started a game since Week 1, when he had just 29 yards from scrimmage. The Chiefs have leaned on Pacheco much more this season, especially lately, so missing one of their top two skill position players could be detrimental.

Injuries to Cook and Cochrane have a domino effect on the Chiefs’ defense, too. Cook’s absence brings safety Mike Edwards to the forefront — he’s been a good contributor, but generally plays better in subpackage roles vs. starting ones. Meanwhile, the linebacker depth has really taken a hit — no Bolton or Tranquill means more time for Jack Cochrane and other backups/role players. Cochrane hasn’t necessarily been bad, but he’s inexperienced.

Another look at Wanya Morris

As mentioned earlier, Morris has stepped in for Smith at left tackle in some capacity in each of the last two games. He’s played well, allowing two pressures on 33 pass blocking snaps and showing off his strength as a run blocker. Morris could very well be this team’s left tackle of the future, but if there’s no drop off in play from Smith, maybe he could become the left tackle of the present sooner than we thought.



Go get that No. 1 seed!

The Chiefs blew their chance of reclaiming the AFC’s No. 1 seed this past week, and now they no longer control their own destiny. K.C. holds tiebreakers over the Baltimore Ravens (current one seed) and Miami Dolphins (two seed), but the problem is they’re a game behind both of them. A win could keep the Chiefs firmly in that one-seed race, but a loss might dash K.C.’s playoff bye hopes completely.

Chiefs-Bills best bets

I went 0-for-3 last week. A big zero. I guess the Chiefs weren’t the only ones off their game, huh?



Chiefs moneyline (-122)

Sometimes the simplest bets are the best ones. I don’t take moneylines often because they rarely seem to be longer than -180ish, and at that point the payout is barely worth the bet unless it’s included in a parlay. But -120ish or longer is the perfect point to pick a team and stick to it. And in these big games, I’m rarely betting against the Chiefs, even (or especially) after a tough loss.

Bills QB Josh Allen anytime TD scorer (+125)

Allen has rushed for nine touchdowns this season, including at least one in eight of 12 games. That’s 66 percent of his games that he has a rushing TD, but the implied probability from his odds say there’s only a 44.4 percent chance. I’ll take those chances, especially with a 1.25x return.

Chiefs TE Noah Gray over 12.5 receiving yards (-120)

I’m actually rather surprised that Gray’s total is listed this low considering he’s gone over 12 yards in eight of 12 games this season. He was quiet last week but Mahomes does rely on him for a couple of clutch catches in most games. With the Chiefs’ receiving squad not playing up to par, Gray could easily be featured more in this pivotal matchup.

Chiefs-Bills matchup history

The Bills lead the all-time series over the Chiefs 28-24-1 dating back to 1960. The Chiefs are 6-3 vs. Buffalo under coach Andy Reid and 3-2 under the leadership of Mahomes. Two of those wins came in the playoffs — Mahomes is 1-2 against the Bills in the regular season.

The last time the Chiefs and Bills played…

The Bills beat Kansas City 24-20 on October 16, 2022. It was a back-and-forth matchup until the bitter end when Allen hit Knox for a touchdown with 1:04 to go. It looked like the Chiefs had a chance to pull another crazy 13-second-game-esque miracle, but a pressured Mahomes threw an interception at the end to cap off the loss.



The best Chiefs-Bills game ever was…

C’mon. You know the one. The aforementioned 13-second game. On January 23, 2022, in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Bills went up by three with just 13 seconds to go in the game. All hope was lost, until Mahomes found tight end Travis Kelce down the middle for 25 yards. Kicker Harrison Butker nailed the field goal to send it to overtime, and then Mahomes and Kelce sealed it with a touchdown.