Chiefs vs. Chargers, Week 7 preview

Chiefs-Chargers game notes, picks, plus biggest storylines and new 'best bets' selections!

Wes Roesch

Key game details

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Sunday, Oct. 22
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Tra Blake
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -5.5 (-112), ML -245
Weather: Approx. 67°, partly cloudy, 12-13 mph winds, chance of rain 29%

Chiefs

Did not practice: WR Justin Watson (elbow)

Limited participants: None

Full participants: LB Nick Bolton (ankle), S Bryan Cook (neck), DE George Karlaftis (hamstring), TE Travis Kelce (ankle), DE Charles Omenihu (non-injury related), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee), WR Kadarius Toney (toe), P Tommy Townsend (knee)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

Watson won’t play Sunday and may miss multiple games. Luckily, the team added a familiar face in receiver Mecole Hardman, who had the shortest of stints with the New York Jets before returning to K.C.

Chargers

Did not practice: WR Keenan Allen (rest), DB Deane Leonard (hamstring), LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (hamstring)

Limited participants: LB Joey Bosa (toe), S Alohi Gilman (heel), WR Jalen Guyton (knee), S Jaylinn Hawkins (illness), S Derwin James Jr. (ankle), DL Sebastian Joseph-Day (knee), DL Otito Ogbonnia (knee)



Full participants: OL Will Clapp (knee), TE Donald Parham Jr. (wrist), OT Rashawn Slater (ankle)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

As usual, the Chargers are banged up. Bosa, James and Joseph-Day are big names to keep an eye on. Allen’s absence was non-injury related, so he should be good to go.

Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 7

Players featured in my previously-named “players to watch” section were typically the top storylines heading into the game. Thus, this section has evolved into “notable Chiefs storylines.”

The return of DE Charles Omenihu

The Chiefs’ defense is sixth in total yards and passing yards allowed per game, 12th in rushing yards allowed per game, and second in points allowed per game. So it’s exciting to know that the K.C. defense, which is already a top-10 unit (maybe top five?), is about to get better.

Omenihu returns from a six-game suspension and will make his Chiefs debut this Sunday. There’s no indication of how often he’ll be used in his first game back, but it’ll be nice to see what kind of boost he provides for a Chiefs defensive line that has already been playing well.

…And the return of WR Mecole Hardman

Another return! The Chiefs traded with the Jets to acquire Hardman, who was with the team from 2019-2022. Hardman had almost 300 yards with K.C. last season, but had just one catch with the Jets. How will the Chiefs use him? He has already proven to be inconsistent at receiver, but can be dynamic on jet sweeps and other gadget plays. He may not be the top WR target some Chiefs fans wanted, but his presence on the team only helps.

Could DE Frank Clark also return?

Is yet another return on the way? It won’t be for Week 7, but the Chiefs are supposed to have Clark in soon for a physical. Clark was just released by the Denver Broncos and appears to want to join his former team. The correct answer to this is: Well, why not? Clark can be clutch in big moments, and is a noted locker room leader. Adding him can also be nothing but a net positive.



Who the heck is returning kicks and punts?

The Chiefs released WR Montrell Washington to make room for Hardman. Washington was performing pretty well on punt returns. Now that he’s gone, who’s the returner? Probably Hardman, who returned 62 punts and 39 kicks for the Chiefs over four years. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see WR Kadarius Toney back in that role — Toney hasn’t really done much on offense this season, so why not give him a job where he can thrive?

Chiefs-Chargers best bets

In an effort to switch things up even more, I’ve decided to replace the “top stats” section with something a bit more up my alley: best bets. Below are some of my favorite lines from DraftKings.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce UNDER 72.5 receiving yards (-115) AND anytime TD (-140)

I know, it’s no fun betting the under on your players, especially on someone as great as Kelce. I’ll probably regret this, too, given Kelce’s ability to go off in any game. But Kelce has only gone over 70 yards once this season — last week against the Broncos. He’s 4-1 on the under this year. However, he’s scored a touchdown in six of his last 10 games. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes trusts Kelce in the red zone, which is why Kelce’s anytime touchdown line is so short.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-115)

Rice’s weekly receiving yards total has grown as the season progresses, and his highest total came last week against Denver with 72 yards. But the one stat that sticks out to me is that the Chargers have allowed 220 yards per game against receivers this year, most in the league. And they allow the fourth-most fantasy points in the league to receivers in the slot (per The 33rd Team’s The Edge tool). And which receiver on the Chiefs lines up in the slot often? Yep, that’s Rice, who has the team’s highest slot percentage at 62.4 percent (per PFF). 40+ yards seems easily attainable for the rookie.

You could also disregard my Kelce “under” pick above based on this slot stat, since Kelce lines up in the slot over 55 percent of the time. However, keep in mind the Chargers are actually the seventh-best team in the league against tight ends in the slot. Of course, Kelce is no ordinary tight end, so this argument could go back and forth.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-110) AND/OR Jerick McKinnon OVER 17.5 receiving yards (-110)

The good news is the Chargers allow the second most receiving yards per game to running backs. The bad news is it’s difficult to choose which Chiefs RB can/will hit their over in receiving yards. In four of six games this season, only one of Pacheco or McKinnon have hit their over in receiving yards, but not both. In the other two games, both hit their over. So it’s likely that one will hit their over, and it’s possible that both hit their overs in this game. But the trends show the odds are against it being both.

Your better bet would be to choose one Chiefs RB to hit their over, or place separate bets and hope they both hit. If you’re choosing one, I’d lean toward Pacheco, who has been on the field for slightly more passing plays than McKinnon (123 vs. 107) this season.



Chargers RB Austin Ekeler anytime TD (-140)

The payout for this doesn’t quite double your money, but it’s an easy bet that could also add some extra juice to a parlay. Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last 10 games, and hasn’t gone two straight weeks without a score since Weeks 2-3 of the 2022 season. Ekeler didn’t score last week, so as the old school football fans would say, he’s “due.”

Chiefs-Chargers matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series over the Chargers 67-58-1 dating back to 1960. Kansas City is 15-5 against L.A. under coach Andy Reid, and 7-2 under Mahomes. The Chiefs are currently on a three-game winning streak vs. the Bolts.



The last time the Chiefs and Chargers played…

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 30-27 on Nov. 20, 2022. The Chiefs got the ball back down four with less than two minutes to go, and Mahomes did what he does best. Mahomes threw a touchdown pass to Kelce and Bolton sealed the game with an interception off Chargers QB Justin Herbert.

The best Chiefs-Chargers game ever was…

Like I said last week with the Chiefs-Broncos rivalry, there have been so many games between the Chiefs and Chargers that it’s tough to say which game was the best. So I’ll give my favorite instead, which is likely the favorite of many Chiefs fans: the 2011 Halloween game which prompted the camera to catch legendary Chargers QB Philip Rivers to admit that it was “the worst day/thing/play ever.”