K-State vs. Mizzou Betting Preview, Top Betting Trends & Best Bet
Ben Heisler
It’s been nearly 13 years since Kansas State headed east to take on Mizzou at Farrot Field in Columbia. The Tigers took down the Wildcats 38-28, defeating K-State for the fifth consecutive time.
On Saturday, the Tigers look to not just shake off a 40-12 drubbing in Manhattan from a season ago, they’re also looking to stop a 3-game losing streak against the spread (ATS) against the Wildcats as well.
Missouri began the week as a 5-point home dog, even climbing up to +5.5 on Monday morning before completely moving the other way.
The Tigers remain underdogs in their own stadium, but the line has shifted multiple points in their direction; ranging anywhere from +3.5 to +4 depending on the book.
K-State vs. Mizzou odds for CFB Week 3 in Columbia on Saturday 👇
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) September 11, 2023
Wildcats opened as a 5-point favorite, which is still available.
Big move has been the total. Opened at 48, and now sits 45.5-46.5.
💸 #BennyAndTheBets w/ @pxg #pxg #pxgtroops
(odds board via @betstamp ) pic.twitter.com/up4Fjh4IV1
As for the total, after opening at 48, the line on Monday dropped as low as 45.5, but has once again climbed back up close to the original number. 47.5 is currently the near-universal number on the board as of early Friday morning.
Let’s dive into some of the more noteworthy trends to consider ahead of Saturday’s matchup, along with my best bet for the matchup.
Kansas State vs. Missouri Betting Odds for College Football Week 3
(odds listed via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas State vs. Missouri Betting Trends for College Football Week 3
K-State:
- K-State: 2-0 ML | 2-0 ATS
- Since Chris Klieman took over as head coach, the Wildcats are 33-17-2 ATS, 2nd-best amongst Power 5 schools since 2019 behind Oregon State.
- Klieman has never lost as a head coach to a non-conference Power 5 school, going 6-0 since 2014 both at K-State, as well as North Dakota State.
Missouri:
- Missouri: 2-0 ML | 0-2 ATS
- Despite MU winning their first two games by an average margin of victory of 14.5 points, they still are -9.5 in ATS +/-.
- In Missouri’s last eight games at Farrot Field, the underdog has covered the spread in seven of them.
Kansas State vs. Missouri Prediction and Best Bet
Everything seems to be lining up for a K-State victory and cover on the road this week. Klieman’s never dropped a decision to a Power 5 non-conference opponent, the Wildcats are an elite covering team against the spread, and Missouri has looked underwhelming in both starts this year despite their 2-0 record; not covering in either game.
As a result, using
VSiN’s DraftKings Betting Splits, as of Friday morning, 91% of the betting tickets, as well as 89% of the handle, or money is backing Kansas State on the road to cover the 4-points.
Back on Monday, these numbers were nearly identical, and the line sat a full point-and-a-half higher for K-State to have to cover a 5.5-point spread.
If the significantly higher amount of money isn’t moving the line further towards K-State, whatever cash is on the Tigers appears to be sharp; indicating a likely case of reverse line movement.
Vegas knows something we clearly don’t, and I’m going to trust them here by taking not only Mizzou +4 (-110), but also consider using them as part of a moneyline underdog round robin. I’m still a bit salty I didn’t jump on a better number when the line was holding at +5.5, but given the overwhelming financials towards the Wildcats, I hoped it would end up at +6 or beyond. Instead, it’s down to +4 at DraftKings, and even lower elsewhere.
I won’t be waiting much longer.
Best Bet: Tigers +4 (-110)
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Ben is the host of KCSN’s betting show, “Benny & The Bets” presented by PXG. Subscribe to the show through the KCSN mobile app, or search “KCSN Betting” wherever you get your podcasts as well as on YouTube.
